How silent will the Lebanese people be?

Friday, Jul 31 2009

The country's current political scene with the creation of the government following the parliamentary elections is reminiscent of the difficult work which the country faced after the 2005 elections. The only difference is the calm which characterizes the statements and speeches of the various political groups. Some of the characteristics of the current situation also recall the political situation following the Doha agreement at which time President Suleiman was elected and the political forces were preoccupied with the creation of a national unity government which had already been agreed upon in Doha but had yet to be created. The common factor in all three cases is the 'Quartet Alliance' which was created during the 2005 parliamentary elections, and this is what rears its head each time. It is clear that this institution had, each time, an external support representing Arab, regional and international agreements, which directed each agreement or internal movement as had been the case under Syrian tutelage.

There is no doubt that the illusions of change in the quotas and the adjustments in the positions in this waiting game for regional and international changes to be played out, as used by some politicians, is a dangerous game. Indeed, Lebanon's ancient and modern history has shown that such games do not change the reality of the internal balances at all, other than holding the country hostage once again to the interests of others and placing the country's fate in the hands of greater interests. Meanwhile Lebanon moves from one crisis to another and its people drown in general debt which the political authority does nothing about other than meeting the payments through more borrowing and reaching into the empty pockets of the Lebanese people.

The question arises as to the extent of the ability of the Lebanese people to put up with the consequences of this waiting game. The delay which is taking place in the creation of the future government and the accompanying political crisis which has been going on for over a month, is a bad sign and will have negative implications for the national economy which will in turn lead to the further breakdown of the institutions and the various necessary economic and service-related sectors which deal with the interests of the country's citizens. The country needs a government which will address the various issues and place a limit on the burdens of the people, such as the issues of electricity, water and the telephone system. This does not seem to be relevant to the groups which are striving to increase their quotas and to establish their agendas at the expense of the citizens. This has unfortunately brought violence into the game of alignments through the terrorizing of the people by those who have put forward their voices in the elections to speak for those who consider them as “the protectors of their sect”. The issue of electricity for example, has to be viewed from outside the mentality of quotas and the game of extortion and division. Also, social security, which is facing its own difficulties and is the guardian of the savings of thousands of workers and employees, needs to be saved and payouts to the people need to improve, particularly in relation to healthcare. In addition to this, we also have the breakdown over the past four years of the various institutions whose effectiveness is considered to be the guarantee for the creation of the government and the enforcement of its abilities. In the absence of this, all talk of an effective state remains in the realms of theory and does nothing for the destitution of the majority of the Lebanese people.

This unfortunate situation at the level of the institutions cannot be viewed separately from the general debt which recent studies have placed at around 58 billion dollars at the end of 2009, that is more than 215% of the gross domestic product. The increase of debt did not emerge randomly, but rather came about through the mentality of quotas which runs the affairs of the country. The growth of this debt began in 1992, though it was still in its infancy and did not yet exceed 1.75 billion dollars. The mentality of borrowing increased without being checked or accounted for, under the aegis of various people from the prevailing political layer, whether through 'turning a blind eye' or through active participation, in all the parliaments which have existed since 1992. As a result, Lebanon has became a hostage to its debt, and any economic movement whether Paris 1 or Paris 3 has revolved around meeting the debt payments not the problem of debt itself.

And so, how silent will the Lebanese people be about the problems being faced in the economic and social sectors and in their standard of living which are so devastated due to their being entangled in the political imperative inherited from the period following the Taef accord, the mismanagement of the economic policy and the reliance on a policy of borrowing without checks and balances? Simply put, it seems that waiting is the name of the game over the coming days and weeks, for the various issues relating to the positions and the governmental portfolios of the Seniora government to do business. Let us not forget that Seniora himself has been most involved with each political layer since the Taef accord and during the era of Syrian tutelage and the period after that which saw the tutelage of various figures.

The crisis of inflation and the rising of prices, of immigration and unemployment, during the global economic crisis cannot be borne, not by the Shiites, nor the Sunnis, nor the Maronites, nor any Lebanese citizen whatever his confessional identity, even if these are shored up by political funds allocated to clients and patrons and other political funds. This may prevent official talk of an economic collapse but does nothing to plug the debt which will remain a sword hanging over the necks of the future Lebanese generations (14,500$ for each citizen no matter his sect or leader), especially if the political decisions in Lebanon continue as they are, with partisanship leading the way and the official institutions on the road to collapse with a permanent breakdown of the economic sectors.